Will opening the semi impact Australia's Eurovision 2025 chances?
- Dale Roberts
- Mar 29
- 3 min read
Australia will open the second semi-final at Eurovision this year, but will this hurt our qualification chances?
Eurovision organisers revealed the all-important semi-final running orders this week.
Nations were randomly assigned the first or second half of the show back in January and now it was the show producers' turn to choose the exact order within those halves.
The decision is based on several things, including the flow of the show and even the logistics of staging.
Go-Jo was chosen to open the second semi-final, which is a first for an entry for Australia.
Some fans were excited by this, but many had immediate concerns.
So what does history tell us? Is it a good or bad thing to open the semi-final?
Qualification record
Producers have chosen the running order since 2013, and out of the 22 show openers, 12 have qualified for the Grand Final.
This is a 55% qualification record... which is not great, but it could be worse.
This compares to 19 out of 22 show closers qualifying for the Grand Final.
That is a qualification record of 86%, including our very own Voyager back in 2023.
Closing is definitely better than opening!
But wait, what if you only looked at public vote?
It's true that before 2023, it was a 50/50 jury/public split, so if we looked Top 10 in the public vote, does that change things?
Yes and no.
It means Ronela Hajati from Albania in 2022 would have qualified as a show opener.
However, Malta's qualifying 2014 entry, Firelight, would have missed out if it were just the public vote.
So it's exactly the same record.
There is good news though!
The competition and how it was run in the 2010s is very different from today.
If we only look at opening acts from the 2020s the record is much better.
There were five out of eight qualifiers from 2021 to 2024 which is 63%.
And if you look at just the public vote Top 10 entries, it rises to six out of eight songs for 75%.
If you're good enough, you get through
The recent entries not to make it were Denmark's Reiley with Breaking My Heart in 2023 and Malta's Sarah Bonnici with Loop in 2024.
Reiley's performance perhaps didn't reach expectations, and while Sarah smashed her performance, the song was always expected to struggle.
Recent openers to qualify have included:
Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Liar
Norway: Alessandra - Queen of Kings
Finland: The Rasmus - Jezebel
Lithuania: The Roop - Discoteque
San Marino: Senhit - Adrenalina
A show opener has even won a semi-final before: Alexander Rybak in 2018 with That's How You Write a Song.
The potential bonus
If Go-Jo can qualify with Milkshake Man, his opening position could be good news for the final.
If Australia were to draw the first half in the Grand Final it is highly unlikely he'll be given an early spot again.
If you had to open a semi or a Grand Final, you'd choose a semi-final every time.
Read more:
For continued updates on all Eurovision Song Contest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, YouTube, Threads, Bluesky and Instagram. All the links can be found at: https://linktr.ee/aussievisionnet
Comments