Do the Big Five have an unfair advantage at Eurovision?

We take a look at why you can’t vote for the Big Five in the semi-finals (and does it give them an unfair advantage?)

Whether you’re a relative newcomer to the Eurovision Song Contest or a seasoned fan, we all love to vote for our favourites so they have the best chance on the night.

If you’re a first-time viewer, you might be wondering why some countries are performing in the semis but you’re unable to vote for them. It’s frustrating when we can’t support our faves, right?

It all comes down to how Eurovision is funded, and this is where we take a look at the ‘Big Five’ and whether they have an unfair advantage in 2025.

Why is there a Big Five?

The Big Five countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom - hold a unique place in the Eurovision universe. Alongside the host nation each year, these countries enjoy a golden ticket to the Grand Final, meaning they get to bypass the public vote of the semi-finals.

The Big Five exist due to their broadcasters’ hefty financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) - much larger than any other competing nation. They essentially bankroll much of the competition and also represent a disproportionate number of the potential viewers for Eurovision - following the exclusion of Russia from the Contest in 2022, the combined population of the Big 5 countries is around 327 million people, versus just 277 million people in all 32 other participants combined.

This earns these nations the benefit of sailing through the semis and heading straight to the Grand Final.

Germany's Lena was the first of the Big Five nations to win Eurovision in 2010 with Satellite.

Since 2000, the Big Five (initially the Big Four until Italy rejoined in 2011) have secured direct Grand Final spots due to this significant funding. Fans have long debated whether this automatic qualification translates to an unfair advantage.

But is this true, or can automatic qualification act as a hindrance for these nations? Does automatic qualification give them any kind of competitive edge in 2025 at all?

Let’s dive into the dynamics of the Big Five up to 2025, explore their entries, and weigh their odds against the semi-final contenders.

Is the unfair advantage concept real?

On the one hand, some argue that big money means big presence. Big Five nations aren’t faced with the jeopardy of semi-finals, so they can either take bigger risks or play it boringly safe with their entries without fear of elimination.

The significant financial backing also allows smaller countries like Montenegro or Moldova to participate in ways they may not have been able to without this, which leads to greater diversity in the competition.

On the other hand, semi-final performances get more exposure, allowing these nations the chance to find an audience for their song amongst casual viewers prior to the Grand Final. This perceived negative impact on the Big Five was addressed by a rule change in 2024 and retained in 2025, where the Big Five now perform in the semi-finals but don’t compete for votes.

This is the reason why in 2025, you can be watching your favourite country perform in the semis without the opportunity to vote for them.

What does history tell us?

There’s only one way to settle this – reviewing the success of each Big Five nation since 2000 to see if the idea of an unfair advantage really exists. Data current as of 12 May 2025.

France

Times won since automatic qualification introduced: 0

Top 5 finishes: 4 (2001, 2001, 2021, 2024)

Bottom 5 finishes: 8 (2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2022)

Odds of winning this year: 3rd in the odds to win, 7% winning chance, 56% top 5 chance

Germany

Times won since automatic qualification introduced: 1 – Lena with Satellite (2010)

Top 5 finishes: 2 (2000, 2018)

Bottom 5 finishes: 10 (2002, 2005, 2008, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023)

Odds of winning this year: 17th in the odds to win, 1% winning chance, 6% top 5 chance

Italy

Times won since automatic qualification introduced: 1 – Måneskin with Zitti e buoni (2021)

Top 5 finishes: 5 (2011, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2023)

Bottom 5 finishes: 0

Odds of winning this year: 15th in the odds to win, 1% winning chance, 6% top 5 chance

Spain

Times won since automatic qualification introduced: 0

Top 5 finishes: 1 (2022)

Bottom 5 finishes: 9 (2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2024)

Odds of winning this year: 18th in the odds to win, 1% winning chance, 4% top 5 chance

United Kingdom

Times won since automatic qualification introduced: 0

Top 5 finishes: 3 (2002, 2009, 2022)

Bottom 5 finishes: 11 (2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023)

Odds of winning this year: 16th in the odds to win, 1% winning chance, 6% top 5 chance

It’s clear to see that the Big Five’s automatic qualification hasn’t often guaranteed success. Since the rule’s inception in 2000, only two Big Five nations have won: Germany (Lena, 2010, Satellite) and Italy (Måneskin, 2021, Zitti e buoni).

Måneskin performing their winning track Zitti e buoni at Eurovision 2021, a rare example of a Big 5 nation winning the contest

If anything, the Big Five countries have more frequently placed in the bottom 5 than the top, with Italy the only exception.

The Edge - or lack thereof

So, does automatic qualification give the Big Five an edge in 2025? The evidence suggests it’s a mixed bag that errs more on the side of hindrance than help.

Advantages include guaranteed visibility in the Grand Final, a luxury 31 semi-finalists will fight for this year, and the financial muscle to craft polished performances.

However, the disadvantages are loud and clear: limited engagement in semi-finals (where they perform but don’t compete) can leave voters cold. There is also a perception that Big Five entries sometimes lack the hunger of semi-final qualifiers, with viewers less likely to reward safe songs with votes.

Indeed, there's a swag of non-Big Five nations who have taken out the title multiple times since the introduction of the automatic qualification rule, headed up by Sweden and Ukraine with 3 wins each, and Denmark with 2 wins. This further indicates that the Big Five may actually be running with an arm tied behind their back, and would be better suited to unprotected semi-final participation.

What's predicted for the Big Five in 2025?

This year, the bookmakers’ odds tell a stark story: a dozen non-Big Five nations including Sweden, Austria and Finland all outrank every Big Five country apart from France, with Italy considered the next serious Big Five contender sitting all the way down at 15th in the odds to win.

For fans, the Big Five remain a fascinating paradox: their financial clout ensures a stage, but only a killer song wins the crown. As Eurovision 2025 unfolds, can France defy the odds, or will the semi-finalists dominate again?

Share your predictions below – who is your Big Five favourite, and do you think the automatic qualification rule needs a rethink?

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