Belgian bomb-out: Bookies' favourites from Belgium who failed to qualify

Earlier today Australia time, as the qualifiers from the first semi-final were announced, fans were left in disbelief as the birthday boy from Belgium - Red Sebastian with Strobe Lights - failed to qualify for the Grand Final.

For past few months Belgium had consistently featured in the top 10 with the bookmakers. In fact up until early February Belgium had been the bookies' favourite to win the entire competition.

Red Sebastian's odds drifted in the following months all the way out to 10th favourite, but once rehearsals for the contest commenced they began to narrow again.

After Belgium performed in the first semi-final, Strobe Lights surged into the bookies' top five to win the entire contest. Only for Red Sebastian to be sensationally dumped by the voters, and be left behind in the semi-final.

This is not the first time this century that Belgium has been considered a bookies' favourite to win Eurovision, only for the country to fail to escape the semi-final. We take a look at these entries.

2006: Kate Ryan - Je t'adore

One of Belgium's biggest stars with six top 10 singles before Eurovision, Kate Ryan seemed destined for Eurovision success.

In early April betting agent Paddy Power considered the blonde Belgian bombshell the fourth favourite to win the contest in Athens.

The song hit number 1 in Belgium, with Flemish Kate cleverly singing a song with a French title to get both halves of the country behind her.

However when it came to Eurovision Belgium flopped, finishing 12th in the semi-final and failing to reach to the Grand Final.

The day after the semi-final a dejected but courageous Kate fronted the international press, stating:

"I'm a little bit disappointed and a little bit sad, but it will be ok. [Eurovision] is a game you know ... maybe people didn't like it, or didn't like the performance, didn't like my dress, I don't know."

There are likely several factors why Belgium failed to qualify on this occasion.

In 2006 there was only one semi-final, with 23 entries fighting for 10 spots. With an early running order at seventh it was hard for Kate to stand out, coupled with a lack of a diaspora vote in an era when ex-Soviet, Balkan and Nordic countries notoriously swapped tele-votes.

Mishaps in Kate's live performance like the footage randomly cutting to the green room for a second and Kate's hair getting stuck to her mouth likely did not help her cause. Performing with three glowing microphone stands seemed a little tacky as well.

The result was so disastrous for Belgium it terrified other big Belgian artists into being hesitant to represent their country at Eurovision. Hadise, who would later represent Türkiye in 2009 and came fourth, stated due her best friend Kate failing to qualify she would never represent Belgium at the contest.

2018: Sennek - A Matter of Time

After three consecutive top 10 showings from 2015 to 2017, it seemed that Belgium had found the right formula and was turning into a Eurovision powerhouse.

The Flemish broadcaster VRT internally selected Sennek and her atmospheric downtempo song A Matter of Time.

In mid-April Skybet predicted that Belgium would comfortably finish in the top 10.

However the staging of A Matter of Time would prove its undoing.

The opening shot, which was a close-up of Sennek holding up her quaking left arm, unveiled the nerves the Belgian artist felt on the night. It certainly wouldn't instill in Europe's viewers that this was a confident performance.

Sennek performed on that year's "sub-stage" and was completely surrounded by the rapturous Eurovision mosh pit. The atmospheric, haunting feel of the song that made it so unique completely evaporated in this environment.

Finally Sennek's dress was rather unflattering. The concentric circles of her dress looked as if fuzzy, black hula-hoops were connected to her. The fact Belgium finished third in that year's Barbara Dex award, an annual fan vote of the worst Eurovision outfit, suggests widespread dislike for Sennek's costume choice.

In the end Sennek finished 12th out of 19 contestants in the first semi-final of Eurovision 2018.

2024: Mustii - Before the Party's Over

Walloon broadcaster RTBF internally selected Mustii to represent Belgium at Eurovision 2024.

When Mustii released Before the Party's Over in late February 2024, Belgium immediately jumped into the bookies' top five to win the entire contest.

There was further momentum when Belgium finished fourth in the OGAE poll, where Eurovision national fan clubs vote for their favourite entries.

Different broadcaster, but once again Belgium would butcher their Eurovision entry's staging.

Dressed in an unflattering white coat, Mustii delivered the majority of his performance in a circle of microphones on stands. Did RTBF not learn from Kate Ryan in 2006 that microphone stands and Belgian Eurovision entries don't mix?

The absolute killer though was Mustii's vocals on the night, which were flatter than the Belgian coastline.

In all honesty: Mustii looked and sounded like an eccentric scientist who had rushed from his day job, to commence his night shift of sorting out equipment in a music storeroom.

Belgium went from fourth in the odds to win Eurovision 2024, to finishing fourth from last in its semi-final.

2025: Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights

What is incredible about Belgium's non-qualification this year is that Red Sebastian seemed to have neither the staging or vocal issues that plagued previous Belgian favourites.

Also whilst previous favourites saw their odds drift during rehearsals and the live show, Strobe Lights narrowed rapidly.

The running order was likely the main reason for Belgium's downfall. Performing after Norway, another young male soloist with an uptempo dance number that had primarily red-coloured staging, proved a deadly decision by the show's producers.

Some Aussievision contributors, even before the shock result, noted Red Sebastian's lack of charisma in his performance. Memes have been made about him seemingly making out with his own reflection on the ground during his routine, suggesting a narcissistic vibe which could have turned off viewers.

Finally in an era where the semi-final is a 100% tele-vote, Belgium's lack of diaspora likely impacted its chances further. Two or three sets of 12 or 10 points from friendly nations is all a country needs to propel it into qualification zone.

Whatever the reason, Belgians will understandably be disappointed that their entry - despite being a bookies' favourite - bombed out in the semi-final for the second year in a row.

However the Eurovision future is still bright for Belgium. In 2023 the day before semi-final 2 Belgium's Gustaph was 28th in the odds. He finished 8th overall, proving the opposite fortune can happen to Belgium too.

For now Belgium will watch the 2025 Grand Final from the sidelines. But fortune can change quickly at Eurovision, and there is no doubt the Belgians will be looking to avenge these unexpected results next year.

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