Which countries are surging in the 2026 Eurovision odds?
- Joel Grace
- Feb 17
- 3 min read
Only 12 artists have been confirmed so far, but bookmakers are already weighing up who could win Eurovision 2026.
In fact there's some nations making an appearance in the Top 10 of the odds despite not having selected an artist nor a song yet!
With the Grand Final just over 12 weeks away, we dive into the early betting odds to see which countries are emerging as early favourites in Vienna.
Eurovision odds 2026
(Chances of winning courtesy of Eurovisionworld.com, correct as on Tuesday 17 February 2026)
10. Malta (Aidan - Bella)
3% chance of winning
Ever since Aidan claimed victory at MESC in mid-January, Malta’s prospects of winning have continued to inch higher and higher.
9. France
4% chance of winning
Despite not having announced an artist or song yet, France is sitting pretty in the top ten based on recent reputation alone. Will their chances rise or fall once we hear their song?
8. Bulgaria (Dara)
4% chance of winning
There’s a huge amount of excitement surrounding returning country Bulgaria, who we haven’t seen make an appearance since 2022 when they failed to qualify. Is Dara the artist to take them to the top of the leaderboard?
7. Ukraine (Leléka - Ridnym)
5% chance of winning
Perennial favourites Ukraine opted not to send experienced Eurovision stars Jerry Heil or Monokate in favour of Vidbir debutant Leléka. Bookies seem to question whether it was the right decision, with Ukraine falling from 3rd to 7th place in the winning odds.
6. Denmark (Søren Torpegaard Lund - Før vi går hjem)
6% chance of winning
There’s been a huge surge in support for Denmark to win Eurovision after arguably the most successful Dansk Melodi Grand Prix outing in years, with the nation catapulting from 20th place up to 6th in the odds.
5. Italy
6% chance of winning
With the Sanremo Music Festival still a week away thanks to the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, bookmakers are expecting yet another strong showing of talent, elevating Italy into 5th position.
4. Sweden
8% chance of winning
Halfway through Melodifestivalen, there has already been much hype in the fandom around a few songs, enough to propel Sweden into 4th place in the odds to win Eurovision this year for a record-breaking 8th time.
3. Israel (Noam Bettan)
9% chance of winning
Israel has fallen to third place after spending the entire Eurovision season atop the table of bookies' odds. Israel has won the public vote at Eurovision two years running.
2. Greece (Akylas - Ferto)
10% chance of winning
Talk about skyrocketing towards the top! The huge popularity of Ferto amongst the fandom has seen Greece jump from 15th place up to 2nd position in a matter of weeks. Can they reach number one?
1. Finland
11% chance of winning
As anticipation grows around the quality of entrants at this year’s UMK, bookies are predicting that we’ve already heard our Eurovision winner and they’re coming out of Finland in 2026!
What are Australia's chances of winning Eurovision 2026?
After starting the year as low as 28th position, bookies have now elevated us up to 15th place - and this is despite rumoured Eurovision returnee Dami Im withdrawing her name from the running. Sources say an Aussie artist announcement is coming very soon, so watch this space!
For continued updates on all the Eurovision Song Contest news follow us on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, YouTube, Threads, Bluesky and Instagram. All links at: https://linktr.ee/aussievisionnet
Nice post!!!
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Interesting to see how the odds are shifting already, especially with Greece and Denmark making big jumps! The hype around UMK and Melfest always seems to pull Sweden and Finland up early. It’s a bit surprising to see Israel drop from the top spot despite their strong recent public vote record. For anyone wanting to track all the live movements in the odds as more songs are released, the best place to check is usually the aggregated odds compilations here on sites like Eurovisionworld. Really curious to see if Finland's number one spot holds after we actually hear all the UMK entries
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