Was the 2026 Eurovision semi-final draw good for Australia?

Overnight, the semi-final allocation draw for Eurovision 2026 in Vienna.

Australia was drawn into the second half of semi-final two and will compete on Thursday 14 May (early Friday 15 May down under).

But who did we draw, and was it a good result?

Pot by pot analysis

Before the draw, we looked at who would be ideal to draw based on how they have historically voted for Australia.

Each nation had a score of how many more points on average they give us with:

• Anything above 0 is good

• A little bit into the minus is not too bad

• Anything with -1 and below isn't good

  
  

Pot 1

Ideal draw: Albania, Switzerland and Bulgaria

Who we got:

• Albania: 0.02

• Switzerland: -0.25

• Bulgaria: -1.35

Who we didn't get:

• Croatia: -1.53

• Serbia: -2.84

• Montenegro: -3.73

Absolute jackpot, we got our ideal countries and avoided Serbia and Montenegro who rank in the bottom four of nations that vote for us.

Pot 2

Ideal draw: Sweden and Finland

Who we got:

• Denmark: 2.86

• Norway: 1.79

Who we didn't get:

• Sweden: 4.5

• Finland: 3.27

• Estonia: 1.08

Although we didn't get our top two, we still got two strong allies in Denmark and Norway.

Pot 3

Ideal draw: Poland, Israel and Ukraine

Who we got:

• Ukraine 0.89

• Azerbaijan -1.68

• Armenia -3.95

Who we didn't get:

• Poland: 2.67

• Israel: 1.88

• Georgia: -4.03

Although we missed the two highest scores, we avoided Georgia, which is at the bottom of the ladder in favourable votes for Australia. Although we did get Armenia who is second last on that list.

Pot 4

Ideal draw: Moldova, Belgium and Romania

Who we got:

• Romania: 0.49

• Luxembourg: -0.72

• Czechia: -1.05

Who we didn't:

• Moldova 1.37

• Belgium 0.98

• Portugal -0.22

Mixed bag here, we have little voting data to go on from Luxembourg, and even though we got a low voter in Czechia, their score isn't awful.

Pot 5

Ideal draw: Malta, Latvia and Lithuania

Who we got:

• Malta: 1.19

• Latvia: 0.48

• Cyprus: -0.69

Who we didn't:

• Lithuania: 0.02

• Greece: -1.2

• San Marino: -1.62

A positive draw here, our top two choices and Cyprus, which is only slightly below average.

Big four and hosts

Ideal draw: Germany, United Kingdom

Who we drew:

• United Kingdom: 2.12

• France: -0.3

• Austria: -0.94

Who we didn't:

Germany: 1.72

Italy: -2.37

We scored our biggest ally and avoided our biggest detractor.

Overall - was it a good draw?

• Our average semi-final score was: -1.09

• The other semi-final score was: -0.05

On scores alone, semi-final 1 would have been a better draw.

However, look a little closer, and that may not be the case.

With our Top 10 closest allies, semi-final 1 has 60% while semi-final 2 has 40%.

But if we look at our bottom 10 nations, semi-final 1 has 70% of these, while semi-final 2 has just 30%.

Overall, we avoided the majority of those who don't vote for us strongly.

In a 100% public vote year, it would be more concerning to have more of our "mid" nations, but with juries back in semi-finals this year, it is a strong result to get consistent votes across the board.

Like any random draw, it's come out that there are pros and cons of each semi-final.

And generally, if you have a good enough entry, you'll get through regardless of who is in your semi-final.

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