Semi-final starter curse: The most high-profile victims

This morning Australia time, our very own Go-Jo kicked off semi-final 2 in style with the mischievous Milkshake Man.

Despite an entertaining performance, Australia was sadly not one of the ten qualifiers at the end of the show. This was despite the bookies placing us as the country fifth most likely to qualify for the final.

Qualifying from the opening position can be a challenging feat, especially compared to other running order positions. Since the introduction of semi-finals in 2004, acts that have opened a semi-final have qualified 53% of the time.

Since the introduction of the dual semi-finals in 2008 an interesting trend that has occurred is that it is very unusual for both semi-final openers to qualify. The last time it happened was in 2021. So when Iceland qualified in semi-final 1 this year, the odds were not in Australia's favour.

Indeed we at Aussievision have noticed there is arguably a curse with semi-final starters, often underperforming against expectations. We take a look at the most high-profile examples in chronological order.

Montenegro 2009: Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life

Montenegro's Andrea Demirović was arguably the first high-profile casualty of the semi-final opener curse.

2009 was the third year Montenegro competed as an independent nation, opening semi-final 1. What was remarkable was that this was the second consecutive year the Balkan country started the first semi-final of Eurovision.

However, unlike in 2008, Andrea was viewed as a genuine contender for the Eurovision crown. In early April 2009 Montenegro was the joint third favourite to win according to bookmaker Paddy Power.

The likely reason for this was Just Get Out of My Life was composed by Germans Ralph Siegel and Bernd Meinunger. They had also penned Germany's only winning Eurovision entry at the time, Nicole's Ein bißchen Frieden in 1982 (Lena would provide Germany's second win in 2010).

Andrea's Eurovision performance was sadly underwhelming, accompanied by only a single male dancer. There were some awkward moves, including a moment where Andrea sits on her dancer who is lying down.

Montenegro ultimately finished 11th in the semi-final that year and failed to qualify for the Grand Final.

The Balkan nation subsequently withdrew from Eurovision in 2010 and 2011. In a creepy curse, on its return in 2012 the country again drew the opening slot in semi-final 1. It wouldn't be until 2014 that Montenegro would qualify for a Eurovision Grand Final.

Armenia 2014: Aram MP3 - Not Alone

Before rehearsals began for Eurovision 2014, Armenia's Aram MP3 with Not Alone entered in as the clear favourite to win, with odds hotter than a summer day in Yerevan.

The intense ballad with dubstep influences was seen at the time as finger on the pulse music, that would appeal to both the juries and tele-voters.

2014 was the second year producers decided the running order. In a curious move the hot favourite was chosen as the opener for the first semi-final.

Whilst Aram MP3's performance was strong, the act seemed to lose momentum throughout Eurovision week. Armenia would be overrun by Sweden, Austria and The Netherlands in the odds and ultimately the Grand Final results.

Aram MP3 finished fourth which is Armenia's joint best result to date. However there was perhaps some disappointment in the Caucasian country, given they had been the clear favourite right up until rehearsals.

Since then the producers have seemingly never put the favourite to win the contest as the opener of a semi-final.

Azerbaijan 2018: Aisel - X My Heart

Another Caucasian country would suffer the curse of opening a Eurovision semi-final.

Up until 2018 Azerbaijan had a 100% qualification streak stretching back to 2008. From its debut until 2013 the country never finished outside the top eight overall.

The thought an Azerbaijani entry would miss a Eurovision Grand Final seemed like a fantasy at the time.

However in an extremely competitive semi-final 1 consisting of 19 countries fighting for 10 places, Aisel's mediocre, mid-tempo pop entry would struggle to standout. Especially performing first.

The fact the letter X was used to represent the word 'cross' in the song's title, symbolised the amateurish nature of the song.

Azerbaijan finished 11th in the semi-final, breaking the country's flawless qualification streak.

In an interview in 2020 Aisel claimed she regretted singing this underwhelming pop song claiming she had "no connection" to it, and that she found it difficult to understand like the voters of Europe did.

Azerbaijan lost its Eurovision powerhouse status and in recent years has been in a bit of a rut with the contest, failing to qualify for the Grand Final for the past three years.

San Marino 2021: Senhit - Adrenalina

You would think a country that would manage to bring world famous rapper Flo Rida to be part of its act - even micronation San Marino - would have a decent shot at placing well at Eurovision.

That's is probably what Senhit thought too when she paired up with the three-time US chart topper with the song Adrenalina.

The duo seemingly sailed through the semi-final despite opening the show. However it would be in the Grand Final that the curse would kick in.

Some commentators, including at Aussievision, viewed this as a potential dark horse to win the whole show.

In the end though San Marino finished 22nd overall, including receiving a meagre 13 points from the tele-vote.

Later results would reveal the micronation barely scrapped through to the Grand Final, coming ninth in the semi-final.

To quote Flo Rida himself it was a pretty Low moment for San Marino, having likely invested a lot of time and money to secure the Grammy nominee's appearance at Eurovision.

Australia 2025: Go-Jo - Milkshake Man

So Australia is the latest victim of the semi-final starter curse. Go-Jo delivered an engaging performance with great energy, creative graphics and multiple costume changes. However this still wasn't enough to qualify.

The difficulty in performing first is as the night wears on, it easier to remember later acts that performed more recently. Particularly those of a similar style. Australia likely got forgotten from other energetic, up-tempo acts in the semi-final such as Armenia, Denmark, Luxembourg and Finland.

As we have demonstrated in some of the high-profile examples even if an act qualifies from the opening slot, the loss of momentum can depreciate their chances of winning in the Grand Final.

To date no act that has opened a Eurovision semi-final has gone onto win the whole competition. This trend will likely continue as producers often put probable winners later in their semi-final half such as Sweden and Austria this year, perhaps learning from the Armenian example in 2014.

That is not to say the running order is the be all and end all. Norway's Alexander Rybak with That's How You Write a Song won his show after opening the second semi-final in 2018.

Australia unfortunately now has not qualified for the Eurovision Grand Final two years in a row for the first time in our history.

However we are a nation of battlers, underdogs and fighters. Though this result hurts, we should be proud of Go-Jo's effort in challenging circumstances.

Australia, through our Eurovision broadcaster SBS, will rise like a phoenix and come back next year with an entry that will get us back to that glorious Eurovision Grand Final. Hopefully with the help of a more fortunate running order.

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