Eurovision 2026: Odds before the rehearsals
- Domenic Rossi
- 3 hours ago
- 3 min read
Where do the Eurovision 2026 odds sit before rehearsal start this weekend?
Before we start the article, if you are considering betting on Eurovision, think about what gambling is really costing you and take measures like setting a deposit limit.
The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is quickly approaching. One of the usual signs that the competition is upon us is the commencement of in-person rehearsals for each delegation.
Rehearsals for Eurovision performances are more than just an opportunity for an artist to fine-tune their package. They also have the power to drastically shift opinions and expectations of entries by fans, and as a result, the odds.
Many in the past have shocked viewers and flipped expectations with a strong, unexpected rehearsal.
In 2018, Eleni Foureira from Cyprus sat in 20th place in the odds. A strong rehearsal shot her up to the odds' final predicted winner as the Grand Final began.
So with that in mind, let's take a look at where the odds currently stand ahead of rehearsals, which start on Saturday.
Winner odds before rehearsals
Leading current betting odds is Finland. Bookies have given Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen a 31% chance of winning the contest.
Sitting in second place is Søren Torpegaard Lund from Denmark with an 11% chance of taking home the trophy.
Both Finland and Denmark delivered strong, powerful performances in their national finals, and nothing less is expected of them once they hit the Eurovision stage.
Australia's Delta Goodrem sits in fifth place to win at 8% chance.
Finland – 30%
Greece – 11%
Denmark – 11%
France – 10%
Australia – 8%
Israel – 6%
Sweden – 3%
Romania – 3%
Italy – 3%
Ukraine – 2%
Malta – 2%
Cyprus – 2%
Czechia – 1%
Bulgaria – 1%
Moldova – 1%
Croatia – 1%
Luxembourg – 1%
Norway – 1%
Lithuania – 1%
United Kingdom – 1%
Semi-final qualification odds before rehearsals
Just as there are odds for the winner of Eurovision, there are odds for chances on making it past the semi-finals.
Historically, betting odds have generally predicted more than half of qualifiers in any given semi-final, but as any seasoned fan knows - anything can happen.
In 2025's first semi-final, Portugal's NAPA were last place in qualification odds with just a 14% chance of making it. Similarly, Iceland's Vaeb sat in 12th with 41%. Both entries went through to the final and placed 21st and 25th, respectively.
In semi-final two, Latvia and Denmark were predicted to stay in the semis, proving again that the odds don't always get it right!
Who is expected to qualify from semi-final 1?
Finland – 94%
Greece – 94%
Sweden – 93%
Israel – 93%
Moldova – 85%
Serbia – 81%
Croatia – 81%
Lithuania – 72%
Montenegro – 61%
Georgia – 52%
Currently, the odds have these five not making the Grand Final.
Portugal – 48%
Estonia – 45%
Poland – 44%
Belgium – 37%
San Marino – 19%
Who is expected to qualify from semi-final 2?
Australia's Delta Goodrem is the current favourite to win the second semi-final. If she wins, it will mark the fourth semi-final victory for Australia.
Australia – 92%
Denmark – 92%
Ukraine – 91%
Romania – 85%
Cyprus – 80%
Bulgaria – 79%
Malta – 76%
Norway – 73%
Czechia – 73%
Albania – 64%
Currently, the odds have these five not making the Grand Final.
Latvia – 52%
Armenia – 50%
Switzerland – 45%
Luxembourg – 37%
Azerbaijan – 11%
Full steam ahead
It is nearly impossible to predict how this week's rehearsals will impact betting odds.
What is certain, however, is that the odds will change - and it is up to delegations to prove themselves and create momentum before the all-important shows.
For continued updates on all the Eurovision Song Contest news follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Bluesky Threads and TikTok. All links at: https://linktr.ee/aussievisionnet
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