• Dale Roberts

Eurovision 2022: Who has been rising and falling in the odds?



With the Eurovision Grand Final less than a month away, many eyes inevitably turn to the odds to work out who may take out the title.


There is, however, a lot of movement in the fortunes of songs in the lead up to the Contest that can impact the betting markets.


We've compared the odds from March 23 (after all songs were out) and now on April 16 to see who has risen, who has fallen and how the favourites are faring.


The favourites


Ukraine

Steady


Ukraine has seen little change. It's range was $1.75 to $2.42 previously and it is now $1.80 to $2.40. The chance of winning percentage only dropped one point from 35% to 34%. They are still the heavy favourite to win the title.


Italy

Small improvement


Italy remains in second place in the odds but it has been improving. The entry moved from a 15% chance of winning to 17%, with the odds improving by around 40 to 50 cents. It's range previously was $4.30 to $5.00 is now $3.70 to $4.50. It is currently winning the OGAE Song Poll and this period also saw the three-minute Eurovision version of the song released.


Sweden

Small improvement


Sweden has also been climbing. Its winning percentage increased from 11% to 13%, while it improved in the odds from a consistent $6.00 previously to between $5.00 and $5.50 today.



Rising


Spain


Spain has risen from 8th in the odds to 6th place. Chanel has put on a range of impressive pre-party performances and has been doing well in fan polls. Previously the odds of a Spanish win were between $23 to $41 while they now sit between $17 and $29.


Serbia


Although still very far down the odds, predominantly in the range of $51 and $61, Serbia has moved up to 13th from 15th just a few weeks ago. This does follow her impressive performance at the Tel Aviv pre-party and the growing cult following of the song.



Falling


Greece


Greece has fallen from 5th to 7th in the odds to win the Contest. Previously it's most common odds were between $15 to $17, while now they mainly sits around the $26 mark.


Belgium


A few weeks ago Belgium was 13th in the odds to win Eurovision but has since fallen down to 16th place with Finland, Switzerland Serbia taking over. This is despite some impressive vocal performance from Jérémie Makiese at pre-parties and in television performances.



So how accurate are the odds?


Well luckiliy, we've already taken a look at this! Check out our 'Eurovision odds - how accurate are they?' article to find out how they've played out over recent years.