• Dale Roberts

Euro Jury - how accurate have the results been?



The 'Euro Jury' is an annual competition held by fan site Eurovoix that sees artists, musicians, and songwriters vote on the Eurovision songs competing that year.


This is the unique element of Euro Jury, and although it only makes up 50% of the vote of their competition, we wanted to look at how the musical expert votes match up to the jury results at Eurovision itself.


Below we go through each year's results from 2021 back to 2017, and see how the results stacked up in comparison to Eurovision.


2021



Euro Jury result (Eurovision jury result in bracket)


1. Malta (3rd)

2. Switzerland (1st)

3. France (2nd)

4. Israel (12th)

5. Iceland (5th)

6. Italy (4th)

7. Sweden (17th)

8. Cyprus (16th)

9. Bulgaria (6th)

10. Romania (NQ)


This was a particularly accurate Euro Jury with four of those in the top five (80%) of Euro Jury finishing that high at Eurovision.


And although it didn't accurately predict the winner, it also had the exact same top three as the jury at Eurovision.


However, the top 10 record was less impressive, with only a 60% strike rate and some over inflation of how Sweden, Cyprus and Romania would do.


Some unexpected good picks



Although Israel was a little hyped in 4th, it was still a good sign it would do well with juries as it was outside the odds of qualifying for the Grand Final at that stage.

Additionally, Portugal was given little hope of qualifying before Rotterdam, but signs were there of a good jury score when it finished 13th with the Euro Jury (they finished 7th with the juries at Eurovision).


Who did they miss?


Russia finished 29th with the Euro Jury but finished 8th with the juries.


Ukraine finished 18th with the Euro Jury but finished 9th with the juries.


Greece finished 22nd with the Euro Jury but finished 10th with the juries.


Who did they over inflate?


Romania made the Top 10 with the Euro Jury but did not qualify for the Grand Final.


The UK finished 12th in the Euro Jury last year but infamously received nil points to finish in 26th and last.


Germany was 14th with the Euro Jury but would go on to finish 25th with the juries.


2019



Euro Jury result (Eurovision jury result in bracket)


1. Sweden (2nd with the juries at Eurovision)

2. The Netherlands (3rd)

3. Italy (4th)

4. Switzerland (7th)

5. Greece (14th)

6. Armenia (NQ)

7. Russia (9th)

8. United Kingdom (24th)

9. France (13th)

10. Azerbaijan (5th)


A 60% strike for the top five from the Euro Jury but the top three picks were still impressive. If you remove the wildcard that was North Macedonia, the top three were in the exact order they finished with the juries at Eurovision.


It was also a 60% strike for the top 10 and for the second straight year we had a non-qualifier within there.


Some unexpected good picks


The Euro Jury did accurately represent how some televote favourites would struggle with the jury.


Iceland, who were high in the odds of winning Eurovision, finished 18th with the Euro Jury and 16th on the night in Tel Aviv with the juries.


Norway, who won the televote, were put 16th with the Euro Jury and would finish in 18th with the music experts at Eurovision.


A couple of other decent picks were, Denmark finished 14th with the Euro Jury and went on to finish a surprising 12th with the juries at Eurovision.


Also France finished 13th with the juries at Eurovision, so the Euro Jury placing him 9th wasn't too far off. For a song many felt may not work with the juries, this showed it could.


Who did they miss?


North Macedonia. Well we all missed that right? The Euro Jury did place North Macedonia in a respectable 17th place, but were way off the mark with their jury win in Tel Aviv.


Australia was placed a lowly 29th with the Euro Jury but would finish 6th with the juries thanks to that epic performance at Eurovision.


Who did they over inflate?



Armenia was ranked a very high 6th with the Euro Jury but failed to qualify.


The United Kingdom was placed 8th with the Euro Jury but finished 24th.


Belgium was also placed 15th with the Euro Jury and failed to qualify.



2018



Euro Jury result (Eurovision jury result in bracket)


1. Israel (3rd)

2. Czech Republic (15th)

3. Sweden (2nd)

4. Austria (1st)

5. Australia (12th)

6. Switzerland (NQ)

7. Norway (16th)

8. Germany (4th)

9. Bulgaria (9th)

10. Cyprus (5th)


Well another pair of 60% strike rates for both the top five and the top 10, but again there are some impressive gets.


Austria was not expected to be a jury winner and although the Euro Jury didn't predict that, they placed him an impressive 4th place.


On the downside there was once again a non-qualifier in the Euro Jury's top 10.


Some unexpected good picks


Other than the Austria pick, the Euro Jury also gave a sign of what was to come from Cyprus.


'Fuego' was given little chance of doing well ahead of Lisbon, however a 10th place with the Euro Jury was a sign of things to come.


The Euro Jury placed Italy in 17th which is where it came on the night.


The United Kingdom was not over inflated this year, placed 26th with the Euro Jury, it finished 23rd in Lisbon with the juries.


Who did they miss?


Where do we begin...



Moldova finished 41st with the Euro Jury but finished 10th with the juries at Eurovision.


Albania finished 30th with the Euro Jury but finished 7th with the juries at Eurovision.


Estonia finished 14th with the Euro Jury but finished 6th with the juries at Eurovision.


France finished 16th with the Euro Jury but finished 8th with the juries at Eurovision


Also Ireland (24th -> 14th) and Lithuania (28th -> 11th).


Who did they over inflate?


Sadly, Australia. 5th with the Euro Jury, Jessica still finished a credible 12th with the juries, but this was still a big difference.


Czech Republic was 2nd with the Euro Jury but a surprising 15th with the juries in Lisbon (the public loved Mikolas though).


Switzerland was an NQ after finishing 6th with the Euro Jury.


Belgium (11th) and Belarus (13th) also NQd.



2017



Euro Jury result (Eurovision jury result in bracket)


1. Australia (4th with the juries at Eurovision)

2. Belgium (9th)

3. Italy (7th)

4. The Netherlands (5th)

5. Bulgaria (2nd)

6. Sweden (3rd)

7. Portugal (1st)

8. Austria (11th)

9. France (19th)

10. Denmark (13th)


Another 60% strike rate for the top five, however that does hide the fact the the actual top three at Eurovision were placed 7th, 5th and 6th which is quite the miss.


The top 10 however, did have the best accuracy of any contest so far with 70%.


Some unexpected good picks


Australia may have been a little over inflated by being 1st, but it did show the song was always a jury song. So, it's 4th place finish with musical experts in Kyiv should have been less of a surprise.


The Netherlands in 4th was also rather high for the Euro Jury and they were nearly spot on with the Dutch trio O'G3NE finishing 5th with the jury at Eurovision.


Austria was another country not expected to do as well with the juries as it did. 8th place with the Euro Jury was not far off it's position of 11th on the night.


Who did they miss?



Portugal. The winner of Eurovision and the jury of the night was only 7th with the Euro Jury.


Norway was not in the Top 10 but finished 6th with the juries at Eurovision.


For the rest of the results we are limited in the analysis as we only have the Top 10 results.


Summary


Like most competitions or predictions before the Contest, it's a mixed bag of success.


On the plus side we have these results:


Out of the 20 songs that made the top five of the jury vote at Eurovision, 19 of them featured in the top 10 of Euro Jury from 2017 to 2019.


Additionally, 75% of those who finish in the top three of Euro Jury go on to make the top five of the Eurovision Jury itself.


Songs like 'Don't Come Easy' in 2017, 'Nobody Like You' in 2018 and 'Love is On My Side' in 2021 were good pick ups by the Euro Jury.


But on the down side you have a strike rate of around 60% which is less accurate than the odds.


You have an over inflation of many songs including two non-qualifiers making the top 10 of Euro Jury plus songs like 'Embers' and 'I Don't Feel Hate' in 2021 and 'Bigger Than Us' in 2019 doing well but flopping hard at Eurovision.


You can forgive misses like 'Proud' and 'Zero Gravity' in 2019 but 'Amar pelos dois' in 7th and basically half the field in 2018 is worrying.


So overall, it is definitely worth paying attention to but until you put a layer of staging and a live performance over a song, the only guarantee is that there will be some surprising results.


Eurovision takes place on 10,12 and 14 May (European time), follow us on @aussievisionnet across all social channels to keep up to date with the latest.