Could Montenegro qualify for just the third time in history?

Montenegro enters Eurovision 2026 with the worst qualification record of any current nation, having only qualified for the Grand Final on two previous occasions.

The country achieved its first qualification in 2014 when Sergej Ćetković came 19th with Moj svijet, then qualified again in 2015 with Knez’s Adio, which remains their Eurovision result after finishing 13th in the Grand Final.

The Balkan nation, however, is hoping to end their lengthy qualification drought, with Tamara Živković’s song Nova Zora giving fans real optimism that they could finally return to the main stage.

Could Montenegro really qualify for the grand final for just the third time in 2026? Let’s take a look at why they could - and why they might be headed for yet another NQ.

Why Montenegro could qualify

There is no doubt Nova Zora is definitely Montenegro’s strongest entry in years. Since winning Montesong 2025 late last year, Tamara Živković has built some strong momentum within the Eurovision fan community largely due to her song being the most crowd-friendly dance-pop number from the country in years.

In fact, the revamped version of the track has further impressed fans, with many feeling the production now sounds more polished and competitive, which is sure to appeal to jury voters and the public alike.

Montenegro may also benefit from performing in the first semi-final where there are fewer obvious qualifiers. Support from neighbouring countries like Serbia and Croatia could also play an important role in helping the song edge into the 10 qualifiers.

What could stop Montenegro

Despite the growing support, qualification is far from certain.

One challenge for Montenegro is the running order in their semi-final. Many fans feel the nation has been unfairly positioned in one of the toughest slots performing mid-pack at 8th on the night and may get lost amongst the crowd - especially following competition favourites Finland.

Early vision of staging during rehearsals has not done the country any favours either, with fans left feeling underwhelmed by the frilled-neck costumes that we’ve seen multiple times before from Montenegro entrants. At a time where many artists are generating more buzz from first glimpses of what to expect on stage, Tamara’s artistic concept seems to have fallen flat.

Staging could also prove decisive. Montenegro has historically struggled to deliver the same level of visual impact as wealthier broadcasters, and this could become a major factor in getting the nation out of the semi-finals.

What do the odds say?

The betting odds currently place Montenegro right on the qualification bubble.

Eurovisionworld.com have Montenegro sitting in 10th most likely to advance from the semis with a 52% chance of qualifying, suggesting a third grand final appearance is possible but far from secure.

But things look less promising once we review the press poll results taken after yesterday afternoon’s (early this morning Australian time) dress rehearsal. Tamara Živković could only manage a 12th place in this all-important first look at the performances, collecting just six points to her name.

This all adds up to an entry that is struggling to generate the widespread momentum needed to feel like a genuine safe qualifier.

So can Nova Zora make history?

There really is a genuine belief among Eurovision fans that Montenegro has its strongest qualification chance in years.

And so many fans want the nation to succeed, and hope that Nova Zora is the track to get them there.

Whether this translates into an historic place in Saturday’s Grand Final will ultimately come down to how impressed audiences are with the staging, live vocals, and whether the song can stand out from a tough slot in the middle of the pack.

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