• Dale Roberts

Semi final allocation draw - how to watch and who Australia needs to avoid




The semi final allocation draw will take place TONIGHT, 16:10 CET time which is 02:10am Australian Eastern Daylight Saving time.


2020 Eurovision Song Contest presenters Chantal Janzen, Edsilia Rombley and Jan Smit will take care of hosting duties through the event.


You can watch it live on YouTube via the link below:



The draw will determine which semi final each country will be competing in and who against. For the big five nation and hosts, they will find out which semi they will be voting in.


The 35 nations taking part in the semi finals have been put into five pots, based on historical voting patterns. Drawing from different pots helps to reduce the 'bloc' or 'neighbour' voting influence.


We've gone through each pot and determined who Australia should hope to draw in their semi final and who we may want to avoid.


We've determined this by looking at:


  • The average points given to us each time this country could vote for us

  • The amount of time they were above or below the average points given to us

  • The amount of times they gave us a total of zero points from the combined televote and juries


All points mentioned below are the combined total of televote and jury (eg 24 maximum)


Pot 1


Albania

Austria

Croatia

North Macedonia

Serbia

Slovenia

Switzerland


Who we want: Switzerland


Switzerland have given us an average of 9 points, which is the best of this group. Additionally they give us better than average scores half the time and have only given us a combined 'nil point' on one occasion.


Who we want to avoid: Croatia


They have given us the lowest average points (5.8 points) and have given us zero points on two of the four times they've voted for us, including this year with 'Zero Gravity'.


Wildcards: Albania and Austria


We wanted to mention these as they've been very generous in the past. Austria gave us our first 12 points back in 2015 and Albania gave Dami the full 24 points.... however in recent they've both gone 'off' us including two lots of zero points from Austria.


Pot 2


Australia

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Iceland

Norway

Sweden


The Scandinavians plus us and Estonia, we're in the cool kids group now!


Who we want: Sweden, Iceland Denmark


Sweden have given us the highest average score (15.4), have voted above average on every occasion and have never given us a combined total of zero. They are our besties.


Denmark have a high average score (14.3), have only once voted below average and gave us our only televotes in 2017 and some of our televotes in 2018.


Iceland have a high average score (14.6) including a whopping 20 points last year following the friendship between Kate and Hatari.


Who we want to avoid: Estonia


Everyone loves us in this group except Estonia.... they have been a little cool on us. An average of only 6.5 points and only two out of six occasions have they voted above average for us.


Pot 3


Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine


The East all hate us right? Yes and no....


Who we want: Moldova and Belarus


Moldova have a high average points with 9.3, have never given us a combined score of zero, and have voted above average on four of seven occasions.


Belarus also have a good average amount of points (8.9), have also never given us a combined score of zero and have voted above average on three of seven occasions.


Who we want to avoid: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan


We have drawn Georgia every time in Eurovision. On those nine occasions of voting for us, Georgia has given us a combined total of zero points FIVE times. Their average score is just 3.4 and they've never voted above average. AVOID AVOID AVOID.


Armenia (2.3) and Azerbaijan (3.0) both have very low average points for Australia. Armenia have never voted above average and Azerbaijan have given us the combined zero half the time they have voted for us.


Pot 4


Bulgaria

Cyprus

Greece

Malta

Portugal

Romania

San Marino


Who we want: Malta


With an average score of 9.3 Malta is easily the best nation for us to get in this group. They have only given us a combined zero once and have voted above average four out of six times. They were one of only three nations to give us televote points in 2018.


Who we want to avoid: Greece and San Marino


This might surprise you but the Greeks aren't big fans of us. An ok average score of 6.3, but they've voted below average six of seven times including THREE lots of zero combined points.


San Marino have the lowest average score (5.6) in this group and have also voted below average six of seven times, but they've only given us a combined zero once.


Pot 5


Belgium

Czech Republic

Ireland

Israel

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland


Who we want: Poland, Israel and Belgium


Poland have been the slightly strange friendship we've developed. They've given us a super high average points score of 13.7, have never given us a combined zero and vote above average on seven of eight occasions. They also gave us 12 points in the jury to Kate in 2019.


Israel also have a high average points (13), have voted above average six of seven times and only given us a combined zero one time.


Belgium has a high average points (11.6), voted above average six of eight times and only given us a combined zero one time.


Who we want to avoid: Ireland and Czech Republic.


Another surprise. Although not the lowest average points (Ireland 7.3 was higher than Czech Republic's 5.9), they have only voted above average one time out of six and given us two lots of zero combined points. Perhaps we've trod on their territory.... *shrug*

Czech Republic have given us zero combined points two times but have voted above average three of seven times.


The big five and hosts

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

The Netherlands


Who we want: Germany and the UK


Germany have given us a high average of 12 points, have never given us a combined zero and voted above average six of seven times.


The UK have the highest average points in this group (12.3), but have voted below average three of seven times.... they have yet to give us a big fat zero combined points though.


Who we want to avoid: Italy and The Netherlands


Italy don't really get us. An average points score of just 6.6, they have voted below average 75% of the time (six of eight) and given us two lots of combined zero points.


It pains us to say that our Dutch friends aren't so friendly! Average points of 8.2 is pretty good but they've only voted above average two out of six times and have given us a big fat combined zero before.


So there we have it, who we want and who we want to avoid all by numbers....


But Eurovision is about music, if our song is good enough, geography won't matter - every country in Eurovision has given us points before and there's nothing stopping that happening again (but sometimes it helps to have the data on your side).


Tune in tonight to see who we draw.

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