Eurovision semi final running orders - what do the stats say?
- Domenic Rossi
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
With Eurovision 2026 well underway we take a look at what the stats say with Eurovision semi-final running orders.
Every year there is often speculation and discussion among fans surrounding the running orders of each show, and what this means for entries' chances to qualify.
We've crunched some numbers to tell you what semi-final running orders say about qualification chances.
Best performing slots
In 2013, running orders for Eurovision began to be chosen by producers, rather than at random.
After looking at historical qualification numbers from the last 12 contests, there are clear front runner slots that have significantly more favourable qualification streaks.
Apart from slot number 19, which has only had one performer in its history (Eleni Foureira for Cyprus in 2018), its predecessor 18 shows a 87.5% qualification record. This equates to 7 out of 8 performers qualifying from this position.
The only song to not qualify from slot number 18 since 2013 is Latvia 2017 when Triana Park sung Line.
Other favourable spots include:
9 - 75% qualification record.
8 and 15 - 70.8% qualification record.
16 - 70% qualification record.
This year, no songs will perform in slots 16, 17 or 18 due to a lower number of overall participants.
Serbia and Norway will close their respective semi-finals in spot number 15. It is generally seen as an advantage to close the show, and the numbers certainly confirm this.
Montenegro, Estonia, Cyprus, and Latvia will fill in other high-performing slots 8 and 9.
Of all entries that have closed the shows, the chance of qualifying sits at 87.5%. The most recent show-closer to miss out on the final was Cyprus's 2025 entry.
Worst performing slots
Just as the numbers reveal the best spots for qualification, they also reveal the worst.
Significantly further away from the rest of the slots is running order 2, with only 29.2%, or 7 out of 24, acts qualifying from this position since 2013.
This number experienced a four-year qualification drought before Brunette qualfiied for Armenia in 2023.
This year, Sweden and Azerbaijan will take on this "death spot". Sweden currently has a 93% chance of qualifying accord to latest betting odds, Azerbaijan sits at just 11%.
Other slots with low qualification records include:
3 - 45.8% qualification record.
10 - 50% qualification record.
17 - 43.8% qualification record.
Opening up the show is generally considered to be a disadvantage, but strong entries in the past have shown that an early position is challenge to making the final.
Of the ten songs that collectively will open each semi final, just 3 out of 10 are currently predicted to not qualify according to current betting odds.
Full slot percentages
Here is the full ranking of each running order's track record since 2013.
19: 100% (Only one entry ever has performed at 19)
18: 87.5%
9: 75%
8 & 15: 70.8%
16: 70%
14: 66.7%
4, 5, 6, & 13: 62.5%
12: 58%
1, 7, & 11: 54.2%
17: 53.8%
10: 50%
3: 45.8%
2: 29.2%
It is worth noting this year's semi-finalists are only competing in groups of 15, giving them slightly better odds at advancing.
Final results will ultimately come down to songs, stagings and overall packages, with maybe some help from running order luck.
Nothing is set in stone, of course, we will just have to wait and see who makes it to the all-important Grand Final of Eurovision 2026.
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