Eurovision 2026: Who do the odds predict will qualify from Semi-final 1?

With the Eurovision 2026 semi-final 1 only hours away, we take a look at who the odds predict will qualify ahead of the show.

These odds come from the European markets, with Australian betting sites yet to release semi-final odds.

10 acts will qualify for the Eurovision Grand Final, with five acts missing out.

Semi-final 1 qualifying odds

• $1.01 (97%) Finland

• $1.01 (97%) Greece

• $1.01 (97%) Israel

• $1.01 (96%) Sweden

• $1.06 (93%) Croatia

• $1.06 (92%) Moldova

• $1.25 (80%) Serbia

• $1.36 (70%) Lithuania

• $1.65 (68%) Poland

• $2.00 (49%) Montenegro

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• $2.00 (47%) Portugal

• $2.60 (36%) Estonia

• $2.85 (34%) Belgium

• $4.50 (22%) San Marino

• $4.50 (22%) Georgia

(Odds from 12 May 2026)

We have a close top four, with a small drop consisting of Croatia and Moldova.

Serbia follows, then another drop with Lithuania and Poland. Montenegro falls into tenth spot with Portugal close behind.

The remaining four countries fall way behind. We can conclude that 11 countries are fighting for ten spots.

All odds courtesy of: https://eurovisionworld.com/

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