Eurovision 2025: Semi-final qualifying odds after rehearsals

The second rehearsals have concluded and we are mere days away from the commencement of the semi finals, so now is the perfect time to see how the rehearsals have impacted the qualifying odds for each country.

We've all now had our first look at the 30-second performance snippets, viewed the image stills and read the synopsis run-throughs. Now that the second rehearsals have been completed and the public has a much better idea about what to expect from each country's entry, how has all this new information impacted the qualifying odds?

A total of 10 acts from each semi-final will make it to the Grand Final, alongside the big five nations and host country Switzerland.

So, who do the bookies have their eyes on to make it through?

It's worth noting that we have reviewed both the semi-final qualifying chances from European markets, and also the betting odds to qualify for the semi-finals from Australian markets.

Before we dive in, a quick reminder: if you’re considering placing a bet on Eurovision, make sure to think about the true cost of gambling. Set deposit limits and stay responsible!

All odds information has been sourced from Eurovisionworld and Sportsbet.

Who is most likely to qualify from semi-final 1?

Odds as of 10 May 2025, odds movement in brackets

1. Sweden: KAJ - Bara Bada Bastu - qualifying chance 95% (no change)          

2. Estonia: Tommy Cash - Espresso Macchiato - 94% (n/c)  

3. Ukraine: Ziferblat - Bird of Pray - 94% (n/c)       

4. Netherlands: Claude - C'est La Vie - 94% (down)

5. Albania: Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm - 92% (up)

6. Norway: Kyle Alessandro - Lighter - 85% (up)

7. Cyprus: Theo Evan - Shh - 85% (up)           

8. Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja - 82% (up)            

9. Belgium: Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights - 70% (up)       

10. San Marino: Gabry Ponte - Tutta l'Italia - 55% (down)

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11. Slovenia: Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left - 36% (up) 

12. Iceland: Væb – Róa - 38% (up)                  

13. Azerbaijan: Mamagama - Run With U - 36% (down)

14. Portugal: Napa – Deslocado - 20% (down)             

15. Croatia: Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake - 17% (down)                                        

Sweden is now the outright favourite to advance to the Grand Final, with bookies predicting a 95% chance of Kaj making it through from the first semi-Final.

Bookies are still confident that Estonia, Ukraine, Netherlands and Albania will easily garner enough public votes to make it to the main event.

Norway, Cyprus, Poland, and Belgium are all strong contenders to qualify, and San Marino is predicted to snare the final spot in the top 10.

Australian betting odds

How do the European market qualifying chances compare to the Australian market betting odds to qualify compare? There are a few position changes, but the Top 10 countries expected to qualify remain the same. Let's take a look at who the Aussie market favours below:

1. Sweden: KAJ - Bara Bada Bastu - odds to qualify $1.005 (n/c)         

=2. Estonia: Tommy Cash - Espresso Macchiato - $1.01 (n/c)

=2. Ukraine: Ziferblat - Bird of Pray - $1.01 (n/c)      

=4. Albania: Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm - $1.02 (up)

=4. Netherlands: Claude - C'est La Vie - $1.02 (down)

6. Cyprus: Theo Evan - Shh - $1.08 (up)

=7. Norway: Kyle Alessandro - Lighter - $1.12 (down)                        

=7. Poland: Justyna Steczkowska - Gaja - $1.12 (up)

9. Belgium: Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights - $1.30 (up)       

10. San Marino: Gabry Ponte - Tutta l'Italia - $1.80 (up)

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11. Slovenia: Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left - $2.10 (up)

12. Iceland: Væb – Róa - $2.40 (up)

13. Azerbaijan: Mamagama - Run With U - $3.00 (down)                     

14. Portugal: Napa – Deslocado - $4.33 (down)             

15. Croatia: Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake - $5.50 (down)    

Winners and losers after semi-final 1 rehearsals

Biggest fall in the odds after rehearsals

Following a less than inspiring second rehearsal, Netherlands' Claude drops from equal first place to fourth in the odds to qualify for the Grand Final in both the European and Australian markets. Many are now wondering whether this tumble will continue in the next few days leading up to the semis.

Biggest winners in the odds after rehearsals

Cyprus and Belgium both saw a 6% jump in their odds to qualify, following impressive first-look performances during their run-through.

Shout out to Klemen from Slovenia too for jumping up to 11th place, with bookies thinking he is now the best outside chance at making it to the Eurovision main stage following a burst of post-rehearsal support.        

Who is most likely to qualify from semi-final 2?

Odds as of 10 May 2025, odds movement in brackets

=1. Finland: Erika Vikman - Ich komme - 94% (up)     

2. Austria: JJ - Wasted Love - 94% (up)          

3. Israel: Yuval Raphael - New Day Will Rise - 94% (up)  

4. Malta: Miriana Conte - Serving - 84% (up)                

5. Czechia: Adonxs - Kiss Kiss Goodbye - 82% (up)

6. Australia: Go-Jo - Milkshake Man - 78% (up)          

7. Lithuania: Katarsis - Tavo akys - 77% (up)

8. Greece: Klavdia - Asteromata - 75% (down)

9. Luxembourg: Laura Thorn - La poupée monte le son - 59% (up)             

10. Serbia: Princ - Mila - 57% (down)                

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11. Ireland: Emmy - Laika Party - 51% (n/c)    

12. Denmark: Sissal - Hallucination - 46% (down)                             

13. Latvia: Tautumeitas - Bur man laimi - 42% (up)           

14. Armenia: Parg - Survivor - 41% (up)                

15. Montenegro: Nina Žižić - Dobrodošli - 16% (down)      

16. Georgia: Mariam Shengelia - Freedom - 12% (down)       

The bookies are still predicting Finland is practically guaranteed to emerge victorious from semi-final 2.

Austria, Israel, Malta, Czechia, Australia, Lithuania and Greece are all heavily favoured to advance to the Eurovision final.

Luxembourg and Serbia are expected to scrape through and take out the remaining spots in the top 10.

Australian betting odds

The Australian betting odds suggest an extremely tight race to qualify from semi-final 2, with many countries sitting in equal positions. The overall order and composition of the top 10 is the same as the qualifying chances quoted in European markets.

1. Austria: JJ - Wasted Love - odds to qualify $1.005 (up)    

=2. Finland: Erika Vikman - Ich komme - $1.01 (n/c)            

=2. Israel: Yuval Raphael - New Day Will Rise - $1.01 (n/c)   

4. Malta: Miriana Conte - Serving - $1.12 (n/c)                 

5. Australia: Go-Jo - Milkshake Man - $1.17 (up) 

6. Czechia: Adonxs - Kiss Kiss Goodbye - $1.20 (down)         

7. Lithuania: Katarsis - Tavo akys - $1.28 (down) 

8. Greece: Klavdia - Asteromata - $1.36 (down)

9. Luxembourg: Laura Thorn - La poupée monte le son - $1.62 (down)             

10. Serbia: Princ - Mila - $1.80 (down)                  

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11. Ireland: Emmy - Laika Party - $1.91 (n/c)     

=12. Armenia: Parg - Survivor - $2.10 (up)                               

=12. Denmark: Sissal - Hallucination - $2.10 (n/c)            

14. Latvia: Tautumeitas - Bur man laimi - $2.20 (up)               

15. Montenegro: Nina Žižić - Dobrodošli - $4.50 (n/c)       

16. Georgia: Mariam Shengelia - Freedom - $6.00 (n/c)   

Winners and losers after semi-final 2 rehearsals

Biggest winners in the odds after rehearsals

It's Australia's Go-Jo, who has climbed from 8th to 6th in the European market qualifying odds (and up to 5th place in Australian betting markets) following his stellar exhibition during rehearsals. Europe has definitely fallen in love with his quirkiness and confidence, and he is gathering exactly the type of momentum Team Australia would be hoping to capitalise on in the lead up to the semi finals.

Props must go to Austria too, with JJ jumping to outright first position in Australian markets after proving he does indeed have the vocal chops in a live setting to match his hype.

Biggest fall in the odds after rehearsals

Greece has dropped down from 6th to 8th in the Grand Final qualifying odds for both European and Aussie markets, after the general consensus was that Klavdia failed to bring enough excitement to the stage. Could this mean that Greece might be a shock non-qualifier in 2025?     

The road to Basel

We've seen some some pretty significant changes in the qualifying odds now that the second rehearsals have been completed. Does your favourite have momentum that will carry them through to the Eurovision finals? Or have they fallen in the odds following a lacklustre rehearsal? Let us know in the comments.

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