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Eurovision 2021 - Semi-Final 1 predictions

Photo credit: Thomas Hanses and Jess Gleeson

Now that the rehearsals for the semi-finals of Eurovision 2021 are complete, the Aussievision team has made some predictions.

16 members of the team all chose their 10 qualifiers and here are our results...

16/16 votes

The countries that 100% of the team believe will qualify are (with the betting odd ranks of qualifying in brackets):

  • Cyprus (2nd in the odds)

  • Malta (1st)

  • Russia (5th)

  • Ukraine (4th)

All four have done well during rehearsals, though Cyprus and Malta were seen as the only "sure fire" qualifiers before Rotterdam. Ukraine has impressed by winning the press poll on Day 2 while Russia won the press poll on Day 1.

The musical style of Russia and Ukraine could still divide viewers and juries, so this number may be misleading... however their staging should see them over the line according to the team.

With 15/16 votes is:

  • Lithuania (3rd)

The Roop have brough their usual unique style over well to the main stage at Eurovision. All but one team member believes they are safely through to the Grand Final.

With 13/16 votes are:

  • Israel (9th)

  • Norway (8th)

  • Sweden (6th)

The one surprise here is that three team members don't believe Sweden can keep their record of nine straight Grand Finals stretch to 10. However the vast majority of the team still believe his staging (which is very close to his Melodifestivalen performance) will get him over the line.

Tix from Norway has divided opinion all season, however he has lifted his game in Rotterdam to deliver a maxxed up version of his Melodi Grand Prix performance. This has risen in many people's estimation this week, and the team believe in a strong majority he is going through.

Israel was the surprise vote here. On the cusp of qualifying according to the odds, we have put her pretty safely through. Eden Alene nails *that* whistle note, but the rest of performance has some questions marks. It's good enough to get through, but will it?

Our 9th qualifier with 11/16 votes is:

  • Australia (13th)

Although no one has seen the entire live-on-tape, what we have seen has been very strong. Montaigne looks amazing, sounds amazing and the production doesn't make it feel like we are "zooming in" from Sydney. This should fit in the show well and give us every chance to qualify. It's still going to be difficult considering our circumstances but we've given it a red hot crack by the look of it.

Now this is where it gets interesting.

For our 10th and final spot we have a tie and a group of four songs very close together. Rather than giving it to one, each song will have a team member vouch for its place.

8/16 votes

  • Azerbaijan (11th)

Making the case for Azerbaijan will be Emma.

"Efendi from Azerbaijan will qualify for the Grand Final from Semi Final 1. No other song in this year’s competition sounds like this with its distinctive Middle Eastern drum beat. Coming directly after Romania will also help as the two songs are so different – this should wake people up! Efendi and her dancers look amazing and I love that they’ve been able to reproduce the clever choreography from the video which lets the dancers do most of the work so Efendi can focus on the vocals. I really like the contrasting colour palette of the graphics and LED use that we’ve seen in the rehearsal footage, particularly the holographic cobra. Let’s hope they fill those last 30 seconds with some pyro and they’ll qualify for sure."

~ Emma

  • Ireland (14th)

Arguing why Ireland will qualify is Ally:

"Wow, where do I begin? That staging is epic, I absolutely love it. It is risky, but it is a risk you have to take in a semi final this stacked. It’s creative and unique and will certainly stand out in the sea of pinks, purples and neon.

My only worry is that something in that very complicated staging goes wrong, and the whole aesthetic is ruined. It is very complicated staging, so if one thing is out of place it could be completely ruined. I

’m not worried about Lesley’s vocals as some others might be, because I’ve heard her sing a bit of 'Maps' in a press conference and it was absolutely beautiful. She was probably resting her vocals during rehearsals, and why wouldn’t you when you need to focus on nailing that staging?

She may have been practicing that staging for months, but a dance studio and the Rotterdam stage are two very different places with very different spacing and dynamics. "

7/16 votes

  • Belgium (12th)

Explaining why he thinks Belgium will qualify is Steven:

"In a semi-final packed with female “bangers”, upbeat oddities and splashes of colour galore, there’s something to be said for the simplicity, moody vibe and coolness brought by Hooverphonic. To succeed in the Contest, acts need a USP, a point of difference. For Hooverphonic, this lies in the stripped back staging, classic dramatic lighting and Geike’s strong vocals.

Although Belgian’s entry is not personally my cup of tea, I’m reasonably sure that it will qualify for the Grand Final in the 7th to 9th place range - not 'The Wrong Place' by any means."

  • Croatia (7th)

Making the case for Croatia is Josh:

"Silver costumes, four dancers and pink LEDs are a running theme this year and Croatia is one of the better ones. Albina commands the stage like a true professional and her vocals are always on point. Being one of a couple of female uptempo songs in Semi Final 1 I believe Albina will not struggle to stand out. Albina can and should break the streak of non-qualification that Croatia has been on ever since 2017."

So which of those four do you believe will qualify? It's all still very much to play for.

The other songs are below:

1/16 votes

  • Romania (10th)

Romania has seen the biggest drop in our team and odds since rehearsals. The concept is currently not coming quite together for Roxen, but if it does it has every chance.

Our one team member who believe in it is Mike who says, "I believe in this song, I still think the song is strong enough for the jury vote to underpin a good score. I've got the feeling it might all come together on the night".

0/16 votes

  • North Macedonia (16th)

  • Slovenia (15th)

Matching the odds here, no one in the team believe these songs can qualify.

Listen to our podcast episode talking through the potential qualifiers and going into more in-depth analysis here:




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