ESC250 Twitter analysis and prediction

aussievision
Dec 31, 2018
3 min read

When many Eurovision fans vote in ESC250 they post their top 10s to Twitter using #ESC250.... and this gives us an opportunity to look at those results and date, and then make some predictions about what we might see in this year's countdown.

Now we did this year and got some things spot on and some... not so much! So don't take this as gospel people....

This year instead of calculating the total points we just looked at how many Twitter users voted for a song, regardless of 12 points or 1 point.

The Top 10

After looking at approximately 300 voters these were the top 10 (in brackets is where they finished in 2017):

1. Fuego - 50 votes

2. Euphoria - 41 (1)

3. 1944 - 24 (3)

3. Quedate Conmigo - 24 (8)

5. A Monster Like Me - 19 (33)

6. Rhythm Inside - 18 (5)

6. City Lights - 18 (10)

8. Love Injected - 17 (25)

9. Calm After the Storm - 16 (12)

9. Grande Amore - 16 (4)

9. Sound of Silence - 16 (30)

Does that mean Fuego will win? We think not.... we know there are a lot of Eleni 'stans' on Twitter and many outside social vote for Euphoria in big numbers. We feel 'Fuego' needed a bigger margin over Euphoria to have a chance.

The big news is... where is Toy?? Toy has flopped big time with Twitter voters. It could only manage a ranking in the 50s with 7 voters putting it in there top 10. Now we don't see it flopping THAT badly but.... we are ready to call 'Fuego' beating 'Toy'. We would still see making the top 10 despite the result.

Now moving on to the rest of the 10...

We do feel that '1944', 'Quedate Conmigo' and probably 'Grande Amore' can pretty confidently hold their top 10 position. While 'City Lights' 'Rhythm Inside', 'Calm After the Storm' have a good chance of being around the top 10 or at least top 20.

'A Monster Like Me' is probably over represented here but could we being a swing to them to move up from 33rd to near the top 20. Love Injected and Sound of Silence are also likely to be much higher than their actual position here, and will either stay around where they are.

Other key results we see:

Big jumps for: 'Taken by a Stranger', 'I Feed You My Love', 'Die for You', 'Poupée de cire, poupée de son','Kuula', 'Adio' and 'Vuelve Conmigo'

Possible entries into the top 100 from: 'Hold Me', 'In Your Eyes', 'Madness of Love', 'Me and My Guitar', 'Ooh aah.. Just a Little Bit', 'This is My Life', 'Dime', 'Fiume de Parole', 'Fangardav en stormvind' and 'No One'.

While big drops for: 'Color of Your Life', 'Beautiful Mess', 'Verona', 'You are the Only One', 'Occidentali's Karma', 'My Number One', 'Lovewave', 'A Million Voices', 'Satellite' and 'Gravity',

We also don't see the drop from 'Amar Pelos Dois' to be as bad as we thought. We have him at 14th and he could end up being anywhere in that 10th to 20th position.

2018 songs

The top songs from this year look to be in order (from Twitter votes):

Fuego
Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente
Mall
Toy
When We're Old
La Forza
Mercy
Monsters
Nobody But You
Together
Under the Ladder
We Got Love
Lost and Found
O Jardim
Vizlat Nyar

Australian songs

On the Australian side we do see Jessica Mauboy making the top 250 it either in the bottom end of the top 100 or somehwere from 100-150. Tonight Again could be in trouble though and drop out of the top 250. Isaiah didn't make it last year and we don't see him making it again.

Previous form

In 2017 we did say in the positive that:

'Grande Amore', 'Quédate Conmigo' and '1944' will hold their top 10 positions.
Isaiah wouldn't make the top 250 and
'I Feed You My Love' would have a big jump and that 'Milim', 'L’Essenziale', 'Birds would re-enter the top 100

But we did say:

'You Are the Only One' would be up there in the top 5, 'Undo' and 'We Could be The Same' would have huge jumps and that 'City Lights' would struggle to make the top 10.

So it shows that Twitter voters aren't entirely representative but these do give an indication.

Tune into ESC Radio from 9pm Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time to hear the results.