How accurate has the OGAE Poll been?
Since 2007, the international network of Eurovision fan clubs, OGAE, conduct a pre-Eurovision Song Contest poll in which every national club vote for their favourite songs of that year.
And today, Loreen's 'Tattoo' was crowned the winner of the OGAE Poll 2023 giving her a second victory as she also won the title in 2012 with 'Euphoria'.
So, does that mean it's an accurate measure of the final or even the public result?
Not always... we've done an analysis of the success rate of the OGAE Poll over the years.
OGAE Poll winners
Let's take a look at the OGAE Poll winners of the last 10 Contests:
2012: Loreen - 'Euphoria'
2013: Emmelie de Forest - 'Only Teardrops'
2014: Sanna Nielsen - 'Undo'
2015: Il Volo - 'Grande amore'
2016: Amir - 'J'ai cherché'
2017: Francesco Gabbani - 'Occidentali's Karma'
2018: Netta - 'Toy'
2019: Mahmood - 'Soldi'
2020: The Roop - 'On Fire'
2021: Destiny - 'Je me casse'
2022: Cornelia Jakobs - 'Hold Me Closer'
From these songs, the strike has been:
3 Eurovision winners for a 30% success rate
4 Eurovision public vote winners for a 40% success rate
These stats don't look overly successful and they are even worse if you take 2012 and 2013 out of the equation.
Since 2014 the strike rate has been:
1 Eurovision winner for a 13% success rate
2 Eurovision public vote winners for a 25% success rate
So, does that mean it's a bad indicator of success? Not entirely!
The average position of a OGAE Poll winner in the last decade has been:
3.4 in the overall standing
4.6 in the public vote
Every OGAE Poll winner (excluding 2020 of course) has finished in the Top 10 and 90% have finished in the Top 10 of the public vote.
Only Malta in 2021 finished outside the Top 10 in the public vote, with 'Je me casse' placing 14th.
How have the last 10 winners of the Eurovision Song Contest done in the OGAE Poll?
Let's look at the top level stats:
90% finished in the Top 10 of the OGAE Poll
4.6 average position in the OGAE Poll
The only winner to not make the Top 10 was last year's champions Kalush Orchestra who finished 11th in the poll.
Though, other winners have not fared super well, with Måneskin from Italy in 2021 placing 8th and Jamala with '1944' in 2016 finishing 9th.
And what about public vote winners at Eurovision?
90% finished in the Top 10 of the OGAE Poll
3.9 average position in the OGAE Poll
Again, Kalush Orchestra was the odd one out, while surprise public vote winners like KEiiNO did fare well in the OGAE Poll coming in 4th back in 2019.
Essentially you really need to make the Top 10 of the OGAE Poll if you want to win Eurovision or the public vote (with just the one outlier being Ukraine in 2022 finishing 11th).
What has the OGAE Poll got wrong and right?
Let's take a look at what the OGAE Poll got right and wrong from the two most recent editions.
UK, Spain and Sweden Top 5 of both OGAE Poll and Eurovision
Poland 7th in the OGAE Poll, 9th in the public vote at Eurovision
The low public votes for Switzerland (28th in OGAE), Belgium (24th), Germany (24th) and Australia (18th)
Ukraine 11th in the OGAE Poll, 1st overall and public vote record
Netherlands 4th in the OGAE Poll, finished 11th overall
France 6th in the OGAE Poll, finished 24th overall
Albania 9th in the OGAE Poll, DNQ at Eurovision
Portugal 20th in the OGAE Poll, finished 9th overall
Austria 10th in the OGAE Poll, DNQ at Eurovision
Serbia 14th in the OGAE Poll, 4th in the public vote
Moldova 22nd in the OGAE Poll, 2nd in the public vote
Switzerland France both Top 3 of OGAE Poll and at Eurovision overall
Greece 11th in the OGAE Poll and 10th at Eurovision
0 points for Germany and Netherlands in both Contests
Low votes for the UK (25th in the OGAE Poll) and Spain (29th)
Italy 8th in the OGAE Poll, Eurovision and public vote winners
Malta 1st in the OGAE Poll, 7th overall and 14th in the public vote
Cyprus 5th in the OGAE Poll, 16th overall
San Marino 6th in the OGAE Poll, 22nd overall
Ukraine 9th in the OGAE Poll, 2nd in the public vote
Azerbaijan 10th in the OGAE Poll, 20th overall
Iceland 12th in the OGAE Poll, 4th overall
Romania 13th in the OGAE Poll, DNQ at Eurovision
Finland 14th in the OGAE Poll, 6th overall
Denmark 15th in the OGAE Poll, DNQ at Eurovision
Russia 17th in the OGAE Poll, 9th overall
Portugal 0 points in the OGAE Poll, 12th overall
In just the last two years, 13% of those qualifying from the semi-final didn't get a single point in the OGAE Poll.
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iceland in 2022
Albania and Portugal in 2021
Not only did 'Snap' from Armenia make the Grand Final, it also became a global hit with the second most streams of any Eurovision song ever.
Additionally, Portugal finished just outside the Top 10 in 2021 despite 0 points in the OGAE Poll.
And finally what about Australia?
Our record has been mixed with some spot on accuracy to begin with, an overhyped 'We Got Love' and a total miss with 'Zero Gravity'.
2015: 6th in the OGAE Poll and 5th overall at Eurovision
2016: 3rd in the OGAE Poll and 2nd overall at Eurovision
2017: 14th in the OGAE Poll and 9th overall at Eurovision
2018: 4th in the OGAE Poll and 20th overall at Eurovision
2019: 27th in the OGAE Poll and 9th overall at Eurovision
2021: 25th in the OGAE Poll and DNQ at Eurovision
2022: 18th in the OGAE Poll and 15th overall at Eurovision
So what does this mean overall?
If you want to win Eurovision, you should finish inside the Top 10 of the OGAE Poll.
Additionally, OGAE Poll winners do finish in the Top 10 of Eurovision
Other than that, it gets more wrong than it gets right.
Many songs get overhyped with France, Albania and Austria in 2022 and Cyprus, San Marino and Azerbaijan in 2021 making the Top 10 and coming no where near that at Eurovision.
While many get completely overlooked like Portugal and Moldova in 2022 and Portugal, Russia, Finland and to an extent Iceland in 2021.
So the overall lesson is, don't get too confident if your song did well in the OGAE Poll and don't lose hope if they did poorly.
Anything can, and will, happen!
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