• Dale Roberts

Who are the bellwether nations of Eurovision?




With much talk during an election about the swing States, seats or constituencies that decide the outcome, we decided to look at the nations who more often than not, pick the Eurovision winner.


For sanity sake, we have only looked back at the last five contests (2015-2019) and discovered which countries by jury and/or televote are most likely to find us a Eurovision winner.


Who comes out on top overall?


Well it's a tie...


France


Quite a surprising result here, but France has in its 10 chances to award top marks, picked the winner five times.


2019 - Jury for 'Arcade'

2018 - Jury and televote for 'Toy'

2017 - Jury and televote for 'Amar pelos dois'


So they absolutely smashed the last three years with five out of a possible six correct results. However 2015 and 2016 kind of fell off the radar.


However their jury did give 'Heroes' 3rd place and their televote awarded 2nd place to '1944' so all round an excellent record for the Big 5 nation....


(Now if they could just pick the right songs in their own national final...)


Israel


Also with a stellar 50% record is Israel!


2019 - Jury for 'Arcade'

2018 - Could not vote but had the winning song

2017 - Jury and televote for 'Amar pelos dois'

2016 - Jury for '1944'


So they had a stake in the winner every year except 2015, however their jury did place 'Heroes' in 2nd spot.


So four out of the eight possible results, and you could argue they would have voted for themselves in 2018 so probably 60%!


The best jury - Latvia


Without a doubt the most accurate jury out there goes to the Latvians....


Four out of the last five years they have correctly picked the winning song:


2019 - Jury for 'Arcade'

2017 - Jury for 'Amar pelos dois'

2016 - Jury for '1944'

2015 - Jury for 'Heroes'


An incredible record with very different songs. Though they didn't even give 'Toy' a point in 2018, with it coming 12th... so they're not perfect!


Unfortunately for the Latvian people, they haven't picked one winner in their televote since 2015.


Best televote - no one?


Well... there really isn't one.... no country's televote has picked a winner more than two times in five years.


France, Finland, Spain, Belgium, Norway and Australia ('Toy' and 'Heroes') have all picked it twice.


Notable mentions


The Czech Republic and Georgia have both had four winners out of 10, giving them an impressive 40% record.


San Marino also has a 50% record, however.... because their televote isn't actually from the nation... (made up of a mix of others) we couldn't officially count it. However it must be noted their jury has been right three out of five times (60%).


Who don't you want to listen to?


Well these countries failed to pick winner from their jury or televote since 2015:


Albania, Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Malta and Montenegro.


Let's just say they have 'unique' taste!


So there you have it, will these countries continue to be right or wrong about the winner? We'll find out in Rotterdam 2021.



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