• Ford Carter

Eurovision betting: how accurate were they in the semi-finals?

Prior to each of the semi-finals, we provided you with preview articles for each show with the songs in performance order, with, amongst other things, the bookmakers odds to qualify listed.


But, how accurate were the bookmakers? Did they miss anything? And can we rely on their odds for predicting who might win the grand final?


Semi Final 1



In the first semi-final, the ten qualifiers were all in the top twelve in the bookmakers odds.


The two entries in the top ten of the bookmakers odds who failed to qualify from the semi final were:


  • Croatia’s Albina with ‘Tick-Tock’ (8th in the bookmakers odds)

  • Romania’s Roxen with ‘Amnesia’ (10th in the bookmakers odds).


The two entries that replaced these non-qualifiers were:


  • Belgium’s Hooverphonic with ‘The Wrong Place’ (11th in the bookmakers odds)

  • Israel’s Eden Alene with ‘Set Me Free’ (12th place in the bookmakers odds).


While not completely accurate, these results are a good indicator of the bookmakers accurately predicting the qualifiers from the semi-finals, with an 80% accuracy record, and the entries were all very close between the 8th and 12th in the bookmakers odds (Croatia’s qualification odds stood at $1.28, while Israel’s stood at $2.20).


Semi Final 2



Something amazing happened with the second semi-final – all of the top ten in the bookmakers odds were the ten qualifiers!


Austria’s Vincent Bueno failed to qualify ‘Amen’ stood at 11th in the betting odds at $2.00, while 10th in the betting odds was Moldova’s Natalia Gordienko who qualified with ‘Sugar’ at $1.83.


With completely accurate results, the bookmakers could not have been better prepared for the second semi-final.


So, can we trust the bookmakers odds?


When it comes to the semi-finals, if we base this on 2021 alone, we can pretty much expect the bookmakers odds to be pretty accurate, as over the two semi-finals their accuracy rate stands at 90% for this year.


However, over the years there has been varying degrees of success. It was a good year for 2021 but will this continue into the future.


We'll have to wait and see in 2022!