Does opening and closing a semi-final at Melodifestivalen lead to success?
Melodifestivalen has revealed the running order of each of the semi-finals for 2021 and as usual, it has led to a lot of fan speculation.
General consensus tends to be that opening or closing a semi-final lends itself to immediate success - through to the final and a potential winner perhaps?
Well, seeing as we’re a bunch of Eurovision nerds here at Aussievision, we decided to take a look at the statistics over the last five years, and see if there was a trend in the success of these bookend entries.
Does opening or closing a semifinal give you a higher chance of making it to the final?
Over the last five years, twenty Melodifestivalen semi-finals have been held, making for a total of forty songs that have either opened or closed a semi-final. So do the stats back up
The average position of the 20 entries in their respective semifinals is 2.65 – or halfway between a ticket to the grand final and a ticket to the Andra Chansen (second chance) show.
And the percentages back that up - 85% of all songs that open or close have at least made the Andra Chansen round while 55% have made it automatically through to the finals.
And if you want to win your semi-final, well you're in a good position by opening or closing with 80% of all semi-finals coming from one of those spots.
Which semifinal is the most successful when it comes to opening and closing singers?
Semi-final 1 is where you want to be if you don't want to be knocked out. 100% of those opening or closing that show have at least made the Andra Chansen round.
Semi-final 2 comes up well with highest average position of 2.4, while semi-final 4 has the lowest with 3.1.
Additionally you should be worried if you open semi-final 4 with 60% of those being knocked out entirely.
Where do the Melodifestivalen winners come from in the semi-finals?
Four of the last five winners have come form bookend positions in the semi-finals. The only winner has Frans in 2016 who sang fifth in semi-final 4. With every winner since 2017 coming from opening and closing the show, it certainly does lend itself to a successful Melfest.
Not opening and closing the semi-final? Not all is lost!
Out of the 15 songs that finished in the Top 3 at Melfest since 2016, a surprisingly high 40% of them had been in the middle order of their semi-finals.
Including in there was the already mention 'If I Were Sorry' plus other big favourites like Dotter's 'Bulletproof (which lost by just one point) as well as Felix Sandman's unforgettable ‘Every Single Day’
So is opening and closing the semi-final all it's made out to be?
Well it looks pretty good! They definitely have more success than others - they're more likely to win, qualify and not kicked out. However, if "your" or song doesn't bookend a semi-final it can still win or get mighty close to it!
So don't pin all your hopes on the running order wherever your favourite ends up!