How far off has the OGAE Fan poll been?

The OGAE Fan Poll was announced yesterday with Italy winning ahead of Belgium and Sweden. The accuracy of the poll is debated among fans and superfans. We've pointed out before they have predicted the winner 40% of the time (but not since 2013), but also picked a top 3 song in a year that it didn't qualify 40% of the time. So we delved a little deeper over the last couple of years to see just how far off the polls have been.

Here are 2016 and 2015 results with the placing in the actual event next to it.

2016

1. France - 6th place

2. Russia - 3rd place

3. Australia - 2nd place

4. Bulgaria - 4th place

5. Italy - 16th place

6. Spain - 22nd place

7. Austria - 13th place

8. Latvia - 15th place

9. Ukraine - 1st place

10. Hungary - 9th place

2015

1. Italy - 3rd place

2. Sweden - 1st place

3. Estonia - 7th place

4. Norway - 8th place

5. Slovenia - 14th place

6. Australia - 5th place

7. Israel - 9th place

8. Spain - 21st place

9. Azerbaijan - 12st place

10. Belgium - 4th place

So how far out is this on average?

Top 5 - 2016 was 3.8 positions out and 2015 was 3.6 positions out.

Top 10 - 2016 was 6.5 positions out and 2015 was 4.8 positions out.

Top 20 - 2016 was 7.1 positions out and 2015 was 5.1 positions out.

Best picks?

2015 - Sweden and Italy in the top 3. Australia only 1 position out. 7 out of top 10 picked

2016 - Russia and Australia in the top 3. Bulgaria spot on. 6 out of top 10 picked.

Worst picks?

2015 - Spain 13 positions off

2016 - Spain 16 positions off. Iceland 14th place and did not qualify.

Conclusion

So our report card... the top few generally do well, but many in the top 10 fail. We have to remember it's fan's favourites... no their actual predictions. How far off will it be this year... with many question marks over live performances, vocal ability and staging... I think we may see quite different results!